Metaculus Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: Forecast Statistics Dashboard

Data presented here lags the Metaculus platform and reflects data from Aug 30, 2026, 9:37 AM

Raw JSON
Uncertainty: 50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecasts from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%highly certain15%site median25%50% highly uncertain ▸Law Enforcement (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Physicians (2035)Nurses (2035)Construction (2035)Engineers (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Janitors (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Laborers (2035)Designers (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Software Devs (2035)Lawyers (2035)
Disagreement: Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%no spread5.5%site median20%40%observed site maxLaw Enforcement (2035)Nurses (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Construction (2035)Physicians (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Engineers (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Laborers (2035)Designers (2035)Janitors (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Lawyers (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Forecasters
Active human forecasters on the question
0
27
60+
50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecast from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%
15%
50%+
Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%
5.5%
40%
QuestionSubquestionYearForecastersForecast Distribution
P5 · P25 · P50 · P75 · P95
Percentiles
P25 · median · P75
50th Percentile Range↕
% of range · raw below
Earth Mover's Distance↕
forecaster spread
Topline Employment
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202747
-1.16%·0.6%·2.16%
11.1%3.32%4.3%
203043
-4.99%·-0.21%·3.79%
14.6%8.78%5.9%
203550
-10.72%·-2.55%·5.08%
26.3%15.8%11.5%
What will the percent change in people employed as [occupation] in the US be relative to 2025?Construction Workers203031
-3.99%·5.38%·14.87%
12.9%18.86%4.3%
203538
-11.84%·2.6%·16.53%
20.1%28.37%7.3%
Registered Nurses202735
1.35%·3.9%·6.26%
8.2%4.91%3.0%
203035
2.2%·8.49%·15.54%
8.9%13.34%3.6%
203541
1.04%·12.46%·25.43%
15.6%24.4%6.0%
Physicians203036
-5.61%·1.81%·8.28%
9.9%13.89%4.7%
203538
-4.1%·6.08%·18.19%
15.1%22.3%7.3%
General Managers203034
-10.39%·-1.53%·8.16%
13.6%18.55%4.8%
203541
-17.79%·-3.88%·11.04%
21.7%28.84%7.5%
K-12 Teachers203030
-7.57%·-1.97%·3.41%
8.1%10.98%5.1%
203538
-15.31%·-5.62%·3.14%
14.2%18.45%6.6%
Law Enforcement203038
-5.04%·0.09%·5.56%
7.6%10.6%2.8%
203541
-6.34%·2.19%·12.25%
13.1%18.59%5.4%
Janitors and Cleaners203034
-8.96%·-1.79%·4.89%
10.2%13.85%4.5%
203537
-26.18%·-8.29%·5.31%
25.6%31.49%11.2%
Restaurant Servers203035
-10.75%·-0.36%·8.61%
14.2%19.37%5.5%
203539
-18.53%·-2.22%·13.52%
23.9%32.06%9.4%
Laborers and Movers203030
-10.15%·-0.87%·7.7%
13.1%17.85%5.2%
203535
-27.53%·-9.98%·7.62%
28.5%35.15%9.6%
Engineers203031
-6.15%·1.89%·9.13%
10.9%15.28%4.5%
203536
-12.29%·2.73%·16.17%
20.3%28.47%8.5%
Designers202734
-7.19%·-2.07%·2.1%
16.6%9.29%7.1%
203032
-16.17%·-3.61%·8.92%
18.9%25.09%7.0%
203540
-27.52%·-7%·12.13%
31.5%39.65%10.2%
Services Sales Representatives202730
-5.1%·-0.51%·3.78%
15.5%8.88%4.1%
203030
-15.63%·-4.46%·6.56%
16.8%22.19%4.9%
203534
-26.63%·-11.78%·6.23%
26.7%32.85%8.2%
Financial Specialists202730
-4.32%·-0.61%·2.86%
12.6%7.18%4.2%
203032
-17.6%·-5.54%·4.84%
17.4%22.44%5.4%
203536
-33.18%·-14.18%·7.23%
34.1%40.41%11.3%
Lawyers and Law Clerks203036
-17.83%·-4.97%·5.66%
18.1%23.49%6.4%
203542
-36%·-14.58%·5.17%
35.8%41.17%13.4%
Software Developers202739
-5.05%·-1.06%·2.97%
14.1%8.02%5.0%
203040
-21.21%·-7.4%·5.55%
21.1%26.76%6.8%
203550
-33.38%·-13.16%·8.68%
35.3%42.06%13.4%
Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being
What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US [occupation] be relative to 2025 in the following years?US Employees (overall)203025
-3.21%·1.57%·6.13%
23.4%9.34%5.4%
203528
-4.01%·4.65%·12.89%
42.3%16.9%13.6%
Software Developers203024
-3.18%·4.98%·13.88%
28.4%17.06%8.2%
203528
-1.11%·14.66%·29.4%
38.1%30.5%13.0%
Financial Specialists203026
-1.28%·5.07%·13.08%
23.9%14.36%7.7%
203530
-1.51%·11.59%·26.14%
34.6%27.66%12.8%
Service Sales Representatives203024
-4.51%·0.64%·7.09%
19.3%11.6%5.2%
203528
-5.98%·4.82%·16.05%
27.5%22.03%8.8%
Designers203023
-5.34%·1.06%·8.22%
22.6%13.56%8.0%
203527
-7.62%·6.59%·20.43%
35.1%28.05%12.8%
Registered Nurses203024
0.72%·6.86%·13.99%
22.1%13.28%5.7%
203528
3.84%·14.09%·24.34%
25.6%20.5%10.5%
What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years?—203033
36.08·37.89·39.37
13.2%3.297.5%
203537
31.71·36.59·38.79
20.2%7.0810.3%
What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the [X]th-percentile US family in the following years?20th-percentile203020
1·1.19·1.48
19.0%0.479.2%
203523
0.97·1.25·1.64
26.8%0.679.1%
50th-percentile203020
2.03·2.32·2.6
19.0%0.578.5%
203523
2.07·2.49·2.99
30.7%0.9213.2%
80th-percentile203020
4.25·4.88·5.67
23.8%1.438.8%
203525
4.36·5.25·6.24
31.3%1.8814.6%
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?—203037
40.72%·51.99%·63.65%
22.9%22.93%7.6%
203540
53.38%·67.91%·80.85%
27.5%27.47%9.0%
Impact on the Next Generation of Workers
What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202738
6.07%·7.32%·9.3%
16.2%3.23%8.0%
203034
7.53%·10.18%·13.86%
31.7%6.33%10.1%
203540
9.28%·13.36%·17.52%
41.2%8.24%12.0%
What will the underemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202740
42.68%·45.48%·48.56%
23.5%5.88%9.1%
203038
44.18%·47.73%·50.99%
27.3%6.81%12.2%
203548
47.05%·54.02%·60.17%
32.8%13.12%13.4%
What will the percent change be in the US [field] Bachelor's degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?Overall2029-3023
-11.83%·-1.55%·6.01%
13.3%17.84%6.6%
2034-3528
-20.18%·-5.34%·9%
22.5%29.18%11.5%
STEM2029-3027
-10.34%·-1.25%·6.17%
12.2%16.51%5.6%
2034-3541
-15.93%·-3.42%·9.91%
19.3%25.85%8.7%
Humanities2029-3024
-19.22%·-8.47%·2.49%
17.2%21.71%7.5%
2034-3529
-31.94%·-14.66%·6.04%
32.0%37.99%11.4%
What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?—2026-2724
-0.48%·2.65%·6.05%
14.2%6.52%4.9%
2029-3023
-3.77%·6.45%·18.75%
15.2%22.52%5.9%
2034-3528
-5.82%·8.91%·28.31%
22.3%34.13%9.1%
Changing Economy
What will the percent change in the US labor productivity be in the following years relative to 2025?—203029
9.48%·15.05%·27.39%
29.8%17.91%9.2%
203533
19.29%·27.81%·39.94%
34.4%20.66%7.9%
How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5000 employees in the following years?—203040
36.75·48.81·59.5
22.8%22.768.9%
203544
45.89·63.64·80.74
34.8%34.8511.3%
What will the US long-term unemployment rate be in the following years?—203032
1.65%·2.86%·4.64%
27.2%2.99%10.2%
203537
2.71%·4.36%·8.09%
32.3%5.38%10.9%
What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?—203033
56.28%·58.7%·60.84%
15.2%4.56%6.2%
203538
52.41%·56.28%·59.92%
25.0%7.51%10.5%
Comparison to Existing Research
How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022?—202723
6.83%·7.63%·9.16%
15.6%2.33%8.3%
203021
10.56%·12.88%·15.87%
35.4%5.31%9.3%
State-Level View
What will the percent change in the Washington state employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202726
-2.09%·0.13%·2.03%
13.7%4.12%5.4%
What will the percent change in the Washington [sector] be in the following years relative to 2025?Technology Sector202725
-3.11%·0%·4.1%
18.0%7.21%5.9%
Aerospace Sector202728
-1.06%·1.93%·5.17%
20.8%6.23%7.7%
Healthcare Sector202725
-0.13%·1.93%·3.9%
13.4%4.03%5.0%
Methodology
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth?—203027
-6.95%·-0.97%·3.47%
17.4%10.42%6.4%
203531
-13.61%·-2.91%·3.47%
28.5%17.08%9.9%
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?—203030
-6.84%·-0.22%·4.45%
18.8%11.28%8.3%
203534
-6.86%·-0.53%·5.16%
20.0%12.02%7.6%