Metaculus Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: Forecast Statistics Dashboard

Data presented here lags the Metaculus platform and reflects data from Jun 5, 2026, 9:45 AM

Raw JSON
Uncertainty: 50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecasts from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%highly certain15%site median25%50%highly uncertainNurses (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Physicians (2035)Law Enforcement (2035)Janitors (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Construction (2035)Laborers (2035)Lawyers (2035)Designers (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Engineers (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Disagreement: Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%no spread5.5%site median20%40%observed site maxGen. Managers (2035)Nurses (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Designers (2035)Engineers (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Construction (2035)Physicians (2035)Law Enforcement (2035)Janitors (2035)Lawyers (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Laborers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Forecasters
Active human forecasters on the question
0
27
60+
50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecast from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%
15%
50%+
Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%
5.5%
40%
QuestionSubquestionYearForecastersForecast Distribution
P5 · P25 · P50 · P75 · P95
Percentiles
P25 · median · P75
50th Percentile Range↕
% of range · raw below
Earth Mover's Distance↕
forecaster spread
Topline Employment
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202741
-2.92%·-0.78%·1.21%
13.8%4.13%5.1%
203038
-4.96%·-0.84%·2.95%
13.2%7.91%7.0%
203537
-10.35%·-2.02%·5.69%
26.7%16.04%12.7%
What will the percent change in people employed as [occupation] in the US be relative to 2025?Construction Workers203030
-7.75%·4.42%·18.14%
17.8%25.89%7.0%
203529
-13.24%·4.66%·25.86%
26.8%39.09%9.7%
Registered Nurses202735
-0.39%·2.8%·6.77%
12.1%7.17%5.4%
203034
-6.81%·6.88%·15.85%
15.7%22.66%7.2%
203535
-3.4%·10.64%·23.64%
17.8%27.04%7.6%
Physicians203029
-9.45%·2.3%·11.77%
15.2%21.22%8.0%
203529
-10.74%·3.67%·19.2%
20.9%29.94%9.9%
General Managers203031
-17.15%·-4.68%·9.55%
20.1%26.69%5.2%
203531
-20.94%·-6.59%·12.05%
25.2%33%7.6%
K-12 Teachers203031
-9.37%·0.57%·9.08%
13.4%18.45%6.9%
203531
-14.22%·-3.52%·10.63%
18.4%24.85%7.8%
Law Enforcement203031
-7.45%·1.71%·10.77%
13.0%18.22%7.1%
203531
-8.5%·7.13%·25.3%
22.7%33.8%10.1%
Janitors and Cleaners203028
-12.2%·-0.2%·7.82%
14.8%20.02%7.0%
203528
-15.23%·-0.98%·17.96%
23.8%33.2%10.5%
Restaurant Servers203031
-10.05%·3.83%·16.46%
18.6%26.51%7.7%
203531
-12.3%·8.23%·24.3%
25.2%36.6%11.3%
Laborers and Movers203030
-13.93%·2.05%·14.78%
20.8%28.71%8.0%
203530
-20.58%·-3.45%·19.21%
29.3%39.79%11.6%
Engineers203030
-13.9%·1.65%·11.15%
18.4%25.05%7.2%
203529
-26.61%·1.59%·22.79%
37.1%49.4%9.5%
Designers202734
-4.49%·0.68%·4.96%
16.4%9.45%6.7%
203032
-14.77%·2.51%·13.09%
20.4%27.86%6.9%
203532
-23.39%·-0.81%·18.33%
31.4%41.72%8.9%
Services Sales Representatives202729
-6.75%·-1.58%·4.12%
19.1%10.86%7.8%
203028
-21.45%·-8.02%·8.73%
23.4%30.18%6.5%
203528
-25.06%·-7.88%·17.67%
32.5%42.73%9.5%
Financial Specialists202730
-4.27%·0.47%·6.63%
18.7%10.9%9.9%
203030
-17.68%·-2.54%·9.09%
20.3%26.77%7.7%
203528
-25.65%·-2.79%·19.4%
34.2%45.05%15.8%
Lawyers and Law Clerks203032
-18.47%·-6.92%·3.51%
17.2%21.99%5.6%
203533
-25.77%·-9.04%·14.02%
31.0%39.78%10.6%
Software Developers202741
-7.44%·-0.97%·4.35%
20.8%11.78%10.4%
203042
-24.49%·-7.85%·9.65%
26.9%34.14%12.6%
203542
-35.02%·-8.11%·25.3%
47.4%60.32%17.0%
Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being
What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US [occupation] be relative to 2025 in the following years?US Employees (overall)203024
-4.96%·1.17%·6.59%
28.9%11.55%8.1%
203524
-4.36%·5.17%·13.45%
44.5%17.81%13.1%
Software Developers203024
-2%·7.13%·13.93%
26.6%15.93%11.1%
203524
-4.34%·13.25%·25.56%
37.4%29.91%14.5%
Financial Specialists203024
-2.7%·3.04%·9.14%
19.7%11.84%8.6%
203524
-2.59%·11.14%·22.89%
31.8%25.48%13.0%
Service Sales Representatives203025
-3.17%·2.55%·9.76%
21.5%12.93%8.7%
203525
-5.69%·5.74%·17.37%
28.8%23.06%12.0%
Designers203024
-3.83%·3.29%·10.59%
24.0%14.42%10.4%
203524
-5.4%·10.52%·24.66%
37.6%30.06%16.2%
Registered Nurses203024
1.44%·7.31%·13.28%
19.7%11.85%7.4%
203524
1.58%·12.63%·21.7%
25.2%20.12%9.7%
What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years?—203033
35.31·37.54·39.18
15.5%3.877.3%
203531
30.13·35.46·38.56
24.1%8.429.6%
What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the [X]th-percentile US family in the following years?20th-percentile203022
1·1.22·1.62
24.6%0.6211.1%
203522
0.97·1.28·1.78
32.3%0.8110.7%
50th-percentile203022
2.11·2.45·2.9
26.1%0.7810.4%
203522
2.11·2.6·3.4
42.9%1.2914.7%
80th-percentile203024
4.29·4.98·5.93
27.4%1.6512.3%
203524
4.36·5.21·6.25
31.4%1.8915.5%
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?—203030
39.09%·51.87%·64.1%
25.0%25.01%10.1%
203529
47.03%·67.06%·81.83%
34.8%34.8%13.0%
Impact on the Next Generation of Workers
What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202732
6.03%·7.93%·9.68%
18.2%3.65%6.5%
203031
6.8%·10.14%·13.3%
32.5%6.5%14.1%
203530
7.27%·11.61%·15.36%
40.5%8.09%12.1%
What will the underemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202742
43.5%·46.71%·49.46%
23.8%5.96%10.8%
203041
45.11%·49.48%·52.81%
30.8%7.7%12.4%
203538
48.19%·56.51%·61.75%
33.9%13.57%13.7%
What will the percent change be in the US [field] Bachelor's degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?Overall2029-3025
-12.85%·2.68%·26.71%
27.0%39.56%12.7%
2034-3525
-22.62%·-4.11%·29.37%
37.1%52%16.3%
STEM2029-3042
-10.17%·1.62%·17.81%
19.6%27.99%7.2%
2034-3540
-13.72%·-0.48%·16.24%
21.5%29.96%8.8%
Humanities2029-3029
-19.58%·-4.04%·11.81%
23.8%31.39%10.2%
2034-3528
-27.68%·-7.08%·26.51%
40.3%54.19%15.7%
What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?—2026-2727
-1.28%·2.66%·7.17%
18.4%8.45%8.4%
2029-3026
-7.05%·5.8%·23.48%
20.5%30.53%5.8%
2034-3526
-11.54%·6.01%·29.74%
27.6%41.28%10.0%
Changing Economy
What will the percent change in the US labor productivity be in the following years relative to 2025?—203032
7.92%·14.77%·30.58%
37.8%22.65%14.5%
203528
16.52%·25.07%·35.16%
31.1%18.64%10.3%
How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5000 employees in the following years?—203031
29.7·45.88·58.69
29.0%2912.8%
203529
44.03·62.37·77.22
33.2%33.1914.7%
What will the US long-term unemployment rate be in the following years?—203030
1.27%·2.66%·5.07%
35.5%3.81%15.0%
203529
2.62%·4.81%·8.22%
33.7%5.6%9.3%
What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?—203029
55.5%·59.06%·62.32%
22.7%6.82%9.5%
203528
50.98%·57.09%·61.13%
33.9%10.16%12.6%
Comparison to Existing Research
How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022?—202725
7.51%·9.5%·12.53%
33.5%5.03%16.5%
203024
11.4%·14.19%·16.97%
37.2%5.58%10.4%
State-Level View
What will the percent change in the Washington state employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202727
-1.79%·0.7%·3.16%
16.5%4.95%7.4%
What will the percent change in the Washington [sector] be in the following years relative to 2025?Technology Sector202728
-4.42%·0.45%·5.92%
25.9%10.35%9.8%
Aerospace Sector202731
-2.27%·0.92%·3.56%
19.4%5.83%6.3%
Healthcare Sector202728
0.19%·3.27%·5.37%
17.3%5.18%7.7%
Methodology
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth?—203026
-5.17%·-0.69%·4.63%
16.3%9.8%7.6%
203527
-9.68%·-1.25%·4.75%
24.1%14.44%12.7%
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?—203029
-4.4%·-0.56%·4.04%
14.1%8.44%6.0%
203529
-5.56%·-0.17%·6.29%
19.7%11.85%9.5%