Metaculus Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: Forecast Statistics Dashboard
Data presented here lags the Metaculus platform and reflects data from Jun 11, 2026, 9:44 AM
Uncertainty: 50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecasts from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
Disagreement: Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
Forecasters
Active human forecasters on the question
0
sparse
27
site median
60+
well-populated
50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecast from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%
highly certain
15%
site median
50%+
highly uncertain
Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%
no spread
5.5%
site median
40%
observed site max
| Question | Subquestion | Year | Forecasters | Forecast Distribution P5 · P25 · P50 · P75 · P95 | Percentiles P25 · median · P75 | 50th Percentile Range↕ % of range · raw below | Earth Mover's Distance↕ forecaster spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topline Employment | |||||||
| What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025? | — | 2027 | 42 | -3.11%·-0.81%·1.24% | 14.5%4.34% | 5.2% | |
| 2030 | 39 | -5.32%·-0.97%·2.95% | 13.8%8.27% | 7.3% | |||
| 2035 | 37 | -10.35%·-2.02%·5.69% | 26.7%16.04% | 12.7% | |||
| What will the percent change in people employed as [occupation] in the US be relative to 2025? | Construction Workers | 2030 | 31 | -6.28%·5.49%·18.15% | 16.7%24.43% | 6.6% | |
| 2035 | 30 | -11.89%·4.31%·23.81% | 24.5%35.7% | 9.7% | |||
| Registered Nurses | 2027 | 36 | -0.19%·2.89%·6.45% | 11.2%6.64% | 4.1% | ||
| 2030 | 36 | -5.15%·5.37%·14.06% | 13.3%19.21% | 5.8% | |||
| 2035 | 36 | -2.82%·10.41%·23.18% | 17.1%25.99% | 7.6% | |||
| Physicians | 2030 | 31 | -15.74%·0.69%·10.78% | 19.7%26.52% | 9.2% | ||
| 2035 | 31 | -10.1%·2.64%·20.51% | 21.1%30.61% | 11.5% | |||
| General Managers | 2030 | 32 | -17.08%·-4.99%·10.27% | 20.6%27.34% | 5.1% | ||
| 2035 | 32 | -20.76%·-6.65%·14.21% | 26.4%34.97% | 7.3% | |||
| K-12 Teachers | 2030 | 32 | -8.81%·-1.52%·6.95% | 11.5%15.76% | 6.5% | ||
| 2035 | 32 | -14.52%·-3.85%·9.83% | 18.1%24.35% | 7.6% | |||
| Law Enforcement | 2030 | 32 | -5.32%·1.75%·9.86% | 10.7%15.17% | 5.4% | ||
| 2035 | 32 | -7.3%·6.76%·23.01% | 20.4%30.31% | 9.5% | |||
| Janitors and Cleaners | 2030 | 30 | -10.6%·0.73%·7.46% | 13.3%18.06% | 6.8% | ||
| 2035 | 29 | -14.4%·-1.54%·13.71% | 20.5%28.11% | 9.3% | |||
| Restaurant Servers | 2030 | 32 | -8.7%·3.65%·13.04% | 15.4%21.74% | 6.8% | ||
| 2035 | 32 | -13.14%·5.04%·22.27% | 24.7%35.41% | 10.3% | |||
| Laborers and Movers | 2030 | 31 | -11.01%·2.43%·12.66% | 17.0%23.67% | 7.9% | ||
| 2035 | 31 | -17.78%·-1.49%·18.85% | 26.6%36.63% | 11.3% | |||
| Engineers | 2030 | 31 | -12.96%·0.48%·9.86% | 16.8%22.82% | 7.0% | ||
| 2035 | 30 | -24.85%·-0.54%·17.98% | 32.5%42.83% | 9.0% | |||
| Designers | 2027 | 35 | -4.11%·0.62%·4.51% | 15.0%8.62% | 6.4% | ||
| 2030 | 33 | -13.52%·2.21%·12.5% | 19.0%26.02% | 6.6% | |||
| 2035 | 33 | -24.82%·-2.49%·15.27% | 30.8%40.09% | 8.9% | |||
| Services Sales Representatives | 2027 | 30 | -6.59%·-2.03%·3.34% | 17.6%9.94% | 7.3% | ||
| 2030 | 29 | -20.48%·-8.85%·6.61% | 21.1%27.08% | 6.5% | |||
| 2035 | 29 | -27.88%·-11.71%·14.74% | 33.5%42.62% | 11.4% | |||
| Financial Specialists | 2027 | 32 | -3.42%·0.95%·7.38% | 18.4%10.8% | 10.0% | ||
| 2030 | 32 | -14.67%·0.18%·11.02% | 19.0%25.69% | 8.4% | |||
| 2035 | 30 | -22.39%·0.96%·28.44% | 36.3%50.82% | 17.6% | |||
| Lawyers and Law Clerks | 2030 | 33 | -17.81%·-6.74%·2.71% | 16.1%20.52% | 5.4% | ||
| 2035 | 34 | -25.3%·-9.1%·8.36% | 26.8%33.66% | 10.6% | |||
| Software Developers | 2027 | 42 | -6.26%·-0.24%·4.77% | 19.3%11.03% | 9.5% | ||
| 2030 | 43 | -24.06%·-8.51%·5.57% | 23.8%29.64% | 11.8% | |||
| 2035 | 43 | -33.74%·-8.88%·17.14% | 41.1%50.88% | 15.5% | |||
| Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being | |||||||
| What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US [occupation] be relative to 2025 in the following years? | US Employees (overall) | 2030 | 24 | -4.97%·1.14%·6.49% | 28.7%11.47% | 8.2% | |
| 2035 | 24 | -4.38%·5.1%·13.25% | 44.1%17.63% | 13.2% | |||
| Software Developers | 2030 | 25 | -1.28%·7.48%·14.34% | 26.0%15.63% | 11.0% | ||
| 2035 | 25 | -1.4%·12.67%·25.55% | 33.7%26.95% | 13.7% | |||
| Financial Specialists | 2030 | 25 | -2.67%·3.05%·9.11% | 19.6%11.78% | 8.2% | ||
| 2035 | 25 | -2.27%·10.83%·22.38% | 30.8%24.65% | 12.8% | |||
| Service Sales Representatives | 2030 | 26 | -3.12%·1.84%·7.99% | 18.5%11.11% | 7.0% | ||
| 2035 | 26 | -5.27%·5.25%·16.06% | 26.7%21.33% | 10.8% | |||
| Designers | 2030 | 25 | -4.63%·2.43%·9.56% | 23.7%14.19% | 9.6% | ||
| 2035 | 25 | -7.22%·7.32%·20.96% | 35.2%28.18% | 14.2% | |||
| Registered Nurses | 2030 | 25 | 2.19%·8.23%·14.41% | 20.4%12.22% | 7.6% | ||
| 2035 | 25 | 3.48%·13.06%·22.69% | 24.0%19.22% | 10.0% | |||
| What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years? | — | 2030 | 33 | 35.37·37.57·39.17 | 15.2%3.81 | 7.3% | |
| 2035 | 31 | 30.15·35.45·38.54 | 24.0%8.39 | 9.6% | |||
| What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the [X]th-percentile US family in the following years? | 20th-percentile | 2030 | 22 | 1·1.22·1.6 | 23.9%0.6 | 10.9% | |
| 2035 | 22 | 0.97·1.28·1.76 | 31.5%0.79 | 10.3% | |||
| 50th-percentile | 2030 | 22 | 2.11·2.44·2.88 | 25.7%0.77 | 10.2% | ||
| 2035 | 22 | 2.11·2.5·3.32 | 40.0%1.2 | 15.0% | |||
| 80th-percentile | 2030 | 24 | 4.28·4.96·5.91 | 27.1%1.62 | 12.2% | ||
| 2035 | 24 | 4.3·5.17·6.2 | 31.8%1.91 | 17.3% | |||
| What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years? | — | 2030 | 30 | 39.09%·51.87%·64.1% | 25.0%25.01% | 10.1% | |
| 2035 | 29 | 47.03%·67.06%·81.83% | 34.8%34.8% | 13.0% | |||
| Impact on the Next Generation of Workers | |||||||
| What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years? | — | 2027 | 33 | 5.99%·7.67%·9.4% | 17.1%3.42% | 6.3% | |
| 2030 | 32 | 7.41%·10.57%·13.76% | 31.8%6.35% | 11.9% | |||
| 2035 | 31 | 7.69%·11.95%·15.54% | 39.3%7.85% | 12.1% | |||
| What will the underemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years? | — | 2027 | 42 | 43.57%·46.79%·49.51% | 23.8%5.94% | 11.0% | |
| 2030 | 41 | 45.18%·49.56%·53.01% | 31.3%7.82% | 12.1% | |||
| 2035 | 38 | 48.35%·56.71%·61.74% | 33.5%13.39% | 13.6% | |||
| What will the percent change be in the US [field] Bachelor's degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25? | Overall | 2029-30 | 25 | -14.19%·0.05%·24.1% | 26.6%38.29% | 12.8% | |
| 2034-35 | 25 | -21.27%·-4.14%·20.96% | 31.0%42.23% | 15.1% | |||
| STEM | 2029-30 | 42 | -10.96%·0.34%·13.26% | 17.4%24.22% | 6.9% | ||
| 2034-35 | 40 | -15.17%·-1.6%·18.89% | 24.3%34.05% | 10.1% | |||
| Humanities | 2029-30 | 29 | -19.56%·-4.08%·11.61% | 23.6%31.17% | 10.1% | ||
| 2034-35 | 28 | -28.44%·-8.27%·21.33% | 38.1%49.77% | 15.1% | |||
| What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25? | — | 2026-27 | 27 | -1.29%·2.63%·7.11% | 18.3%8.4% | 8.3% | |
| 2029-30 | 26 | -8.52%·3.24%·21.61% | 20.5%30.13% | 7.3% | |||
| 2034-35 | 26 | -11.68%·5.73%·29.09% | 27.4%40.77% | 10.2% | |||
| Changing Economy | |||||||
| What will the percent change in the US labor productivity be in the following years relative to 2025? | — | 2030 | 32 | 7.92%·14.77%·30.58% | 37.8%22.65% | 14.5% | |
| 2035 | 28 | 14.63%·24.66%·35.26% | 34.4%20.63% | 12.7% | |||
| How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5000 employees in the following years? | — | 2030 | 31 | 30.71·45.86·58.67 | 28.0%27.96 | 12.5% | |
| 2035 | 29 | 44.03·62.37·77.22 | 33.2%33.19 | 14.7% | |||
| What will the US long-term unemployment rate be in the following years? | — | 2030 | 30 | 1.27%·2.66%·5.07% | 35.5%3.81% | 15.0% | |
| 2035 | 29 | 2.57%·4.89%·8.36% | 34.8%5.79% | 9.5% | |||
| What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years? | — | 2030 | 29 | 55.5%·59.06%·62.32% | 22.7%6.82% | 9.5% | |
| 2035 | 28 | 51.41%·57.89%·61.62% | 34.0%10.21% | 12.3% | |||
| Comparison to Existing Research | |||||||
| How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022? | — | 2027 | 26 | 7.5%·9.28%·12.22% | 31.4%4.72% | 14.4% | |
| 2030 | 25 | 10.87%·13.5%·16.4% | 36.9%5.53% | 12.7% | |||
| State-Level View | |||||||
| What will the percent change in the Washington state employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025? | — | 2027 | 29 | -1.22%·0.76%·2.79% | 13.4%4.01% | 5.7% | |
| What will the percent change in the Washington [sector] be in the following years relative to 2025? | Technology Sector | 2027 | 29 | -4.51%·-0.14%·4.55% | 22.6%9.05% | 7.8% | |
| Aerospace Sector | 2027 | 32 | -1.36%·1.14%·3.37% | 15.8%4.73% | 6.4% | ||
| Healthcare Sector | 2027 | 29 | 0.2%·2.95%·5% | 16.0%4.8% | 7.3% | ||
| Methodology | |||||||
| What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth? | — | 2030 | 27 | -8.74%·-1.36%·3.57% | 20.5%12.31% | 8.4% | |
| 2035 | 28 | -11.42%·-1.31%·5.16% | 27.6%16.57% | 12.9% | |||
| What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation? | — | 2030 | 29 | -4.4%·-0.56%·4.04% | 14.1%8.44% | 6.0% | |
| 2035 | 29 | -5.34%·-0.14%·5.48% | 18.0%10.82% | 9.0% | |||