Metaculus Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: Forecast Statistics Dashboard

Data presented here lags the Metaculus platform and reflects data from Jun 23, 2026, 9:40 AM

Raw JSON
Uncertainty: 50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecasts from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%highly certain15%site median25%50%highly uncertainNurses (2035)Law Enforcement (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Physicians (2035)Laborers (2035)Janitors (2035)Construction (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Engineers (2035)Designers (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Lawyers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Disagreement: Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%no spread5.5%site median20%40%observed site maxNurses (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Law Enforcement (2035)Construction (2035)Designers (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Engineers (2035)Laborers (2035)Physicians (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Lawyers (2035)Janitors (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Forecasters
Active human forecasters on the question
0
27
60+
50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecast from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%
15%
50%+
Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%
5.5%
40%
QuestionSubquestionYearForecastersForecast Distribution
P5 · P25 · P50 · P75 · P95
Percentiles
P25 · median · P75
50th Percentile Range↕
% of range · raw below
Earth Mover's Distance↕
forecaster spread
Topline Employment
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202743
-3.16%·-0.68%·1.56%
15.7%4.72%5.7%
203039
-7.82%·-1.9%·2.61%
17.4%10.43%7.7%
203537
-14.97%·-3.54%·4.67%
32.7%19.65%12.0%
What will the percent change in people employed as [occupation] in the US be relative to 2025?Construction Workers203030
-5.63%·5.94%·20.16%
17.4%25.79%7.2%
203528
-9.96%·5.78%·25.65%
24.0%35.61%8.9%
Registered Nurses202735
0.01%·2.9%·6.35%
10.7%6.33%3.5%
203034
-3.47%·6.7%·15.5%
12.9%18.97%5.3%
203534
-0.72%·12.13%·25.06%
16.7%25.79%7.0%
Physicians203030
-10.25%·1.09%·10.19%
14.8%20.44%7.7%
203529
-6.63%·6.66%·25.31%
21.2%31.95%11.5%
General Managers203031
-13.23%·-2.59%·13.27%
19.2%26.5%5.6%
203532
-14.53%·0.18%·21.02%
25.1%35.56%10.2%
K-12 Teachers203031
-7.01%·-0.29%·7.93%
10.7%14.94%5.8%
203530
-12.26%·-3.04%·12.78%
18.1%25.04%7.0%
Law Enforcement203032
-5.37%·2.26%·10.34%
11.1%15.71%3.9%
203531
-4.4%·7.06%·21.04%
17.0%25.45%8.3%
Janitors and Cleaners203032
-8.4%·1.39%·9.58%
12.9%17.97%7.2%
203529
-16.3%·-0.3%·16.49%
23.8%32.8%11.9%
Restaurant Servers203033
-7.85%·4.44%·13.58%
15.1%21.43%7.2%
203532
-11.56%·9.63%·25.03%
25.0%36.59%13.3%
Laborers and Movers203030
-5.47%·5.27%·14.25%
13.7%19.72%7.3%
203529
-14.78%·1.35%·17.72%
23.3%32.51%10.5%
Engineers203029
-8.56%·2.52%·10.84%
13.9%19.4%7.8%
203529
-19.64%·2.68%·16.8%
27.0%36.44%10.4%
Designers202734
-3.05%·0.66%·3.93%
12.1%6.98%4.8%
203031
-8.61%·4.03%·13.81%
15.8%22.41%6.4%
203531
-20.23%·-0.47%·16.06%
27.0%36.29%9.9%
Services Sales Representatives202729
-6.12%·-1.86%·2.57%
15.4%8.69%6.3%
203027
-18%·-6.34%·8.8%
20.4%26.8%5.9%
203527
-24.82%·-6.15%·15.01%
30.7%39.84%11.7%
Financial Specialists202732
-3.08%·0.72%·5.5%
14.7%8.58%7.7%
203031
-10.66%·0.96%·10.73%
15.5%21.39%7.8%
203529
-18.9%·0.81%·21.04%
28.9%39.94%15.8%
Lawyers and Law Clerks203033
-17.79%·-4.35%·5.03%
17.7%22.82%6.4%
203533
-30.26%·-10.36%·9.44%
32.5%39.7%11.7%
Software Developers202742
-4.86%·0.45%·4.97%
17.1%9.83%9.8%
203042
-21.63%·-6.06%·3.32%
19.9%24.95%11.4%
203542
-31.23%·-6.64%·8.96%
33.2%40.19%16.7%
Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being
What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US [occupation] be relative to 2025 in the following years?US Employees (overall)203024
-4.06%·1.27%·8.05%
30.3%12.12%9.4%
203523
-3.47%·6.96%·16.53%
50.0%20.01%16.4%
Software Developers203024
-5.25%·7.16%·15.45%
34.5%20.7%12.6%
203523
2.81%·17.95%·30.94%
35.2%28.13%14.9%
Financial Specialists203024
-2.18%·3.37%·10.78%
21.6%12.96%8.2%
203523
1.36%·14.54%·26.79%
31.8%25.43%13.2%
Service Sales Representatives203025
-3.24%·2.4%·10.99%
23.7%14.23%10.1%
203524
-3.13%·7.57%·20.68%
29.8%23.81%11.3%
Designers203024
-3.72%·3.11%·13.04%
27.9%16.76%12.1%
203523
-2.9%·13.15%·28.64%
39.4%31.54%16.0%
Registered Nurses203024
1.5%·9.42%·18.31%
28.0%16.82%9.5%
203523
6.86%·18.03%·29.54%
28.3%22.68%11.8%
What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years?—203034
35.29·37.47·39.53
17.0%4.259.4%
203531
28.03·33.81·38.13
28.8%10.111.3%
What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the [X]th-percentile US family in the following years?20th-percentile203021
1·1.34·1.99
39.5%0.9912.4%
203520
0.95·1.34·2
42.0%1.0511.8%
50th-percentile203021
1.85·2.27·2.76
30.3%0.9113.0%
203520
2.05·2.51·3.45
46.7%1.417.4%
80th-percentile203023
4.21·5.14·6.3
34.8%2.0912.5%
203522
4.45·5.29·6.29
30.6%1.8414.8%
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?—203030
45.28%·55.26%·67.8%
22.5%22.53%8.6%
203528
56.2%·72.04%·86.55%
30.4%30.35%11.7%
Impact on the Next Generation of Workers
What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202734
6.34%·8.32%·10.54%
21.0%4.2%10.6%
203031
7.53%·10.71%·14%
32.4%6.48%12.0%
203531
8.36%·12.48%·16.19%
39.2%7.84%10.6%
What will the underemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202742
41.7%·45.33%·48.55%
27.4%6.86%13.3%
203041
43.96%·48.21%·51.69%
30.9%7.73%15.4%
203538
46.94%·54.78%·61.74%
37.0%14.8%13.8%
What will the percent change be in the US [field] Bachelor's degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?Overall2029-3025
-11.25%·1.43%·17.65%
20.3%28.9%12.2%
2034-3524
-15.66%·-1.44%·19.8%
25.3%35.46%13.3%
STEM2029-3041
-10.3%·1.11%·10.55%
15.1%20.85%5.7%
2034-3538
-11.34%·-0.16%·16.48%
19.7%27.82%8.4%
Humanities2029-3028
-13.93%·-3.39%·9.4%
17.3%23.33%7.9%
2034-3526
-22.4%·-3.66%·23.87%
33.7%46.26%13.1%
What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?—2026-2726
-1.62%·1.58%·5.44%
15.5%7.06%5.9%
2029-3024
-4.6%·6.29%·22.6%
18.1%27.2%6.9%
2034-3524
-6.07%·7.41%·28.38%
22.5%34.45%10.1%
Changing Economy
What will the percent change in the US labor productivity be in the following years relative to 2025?—203031
11.36%·22.19%·35.34%
40.0%23.98%18.6%
203526
18.69%·26.31%·37.42%
31.2%18.73%11.3%
How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5000 employees in the following years?—203032
35.09·49.18·59.77
24.7%24.6810.1%
203529
48.34·64.8·79.36
31.0%31.0211.6%
What will the US long-term unemployment rate be in the following years?—203029
1.42%·2.79%·5.43%
35.3%4.01%13.7%
203529
2.83%·4.62%·8.51%
32.9%5.69%10.8%
What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?—203029
54.88%·58.34%·61.5%
22.1%6.62%10.1%
203528
49.56%·56.36%·60.93%
37.9%11.37%13.8%
Comparison to Existing Research
How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022?—202725
7.21%·8.94%·11.49%
28.5%4.28%13.7%
203023
11.05%·13.63%·16.51%
36.4%5.47%11.5%
State-Level View
What will the percent change in the Washington state employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202728
-2.33%·0.35%·2.44%
15.9%4.77%6.6%
What will the percent change in the Washington [sector] be in the following years relative to 2025?Technology Sector202728
-3.09%·1.31%·6.92%
25.0%10.02%10.0%
Aerospace Sector202731
-1.28%·0.92%·3.01%
14.3%4.29%6.6%
Healthcare Sector202728
-0.63%·2.45%·4.66%
17.6%5.29%8.1%
Methodology
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth?—203026
-7.79%·-1.62%·3.69%
19.1%11.47%8.5%
203526
-11.17%·-1.18%·5.42%
27.7%16.59%13.1%
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?—203029
-4.56%·0.08%·6.37%
18.2%10.92%7.2%
203528
-6.29%·-0.38%·6.53%
21.4%12.82%9.1%