Metaculus Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: Forecast Statistics Dashboard

Data presented here lags the Metaculus platform and reflects data from Oct 18, 2026, 9:42 AM

Raw JSON
Uncertainty: 50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecasts from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%highly certain15%site median25%50% highly uncertain ▸K-12 Teachers (2035)Physicians (2035)Law Enforcement (2035)Nurses (2035)Engineers (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Construction (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Janitors (2035)Laborers (2035)Designers (2035)Lawyers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Disagreement: Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%no spread5.5%site median20%40%observed site maxLaw Enforcement (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Physicians (2035)Nurses (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Construction (2035)Engineers (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Designers (2035)Laborers (2035)Janitors (2035)Lawyers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Forecasters
Active human forecasters on the question
0
27
60+
50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecast from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%
15%
50%+
Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%
5.5%
40%
QuestionSubquestionYearForecastersForecast Distribution
P5 · P25 · P50 · P75 · P95
Percentiles
P25 · median · P75
50th Percentile Range↕
% of range · raw below
Earth Mover's Distance↕
forecaster spread
Topline Employment
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202739
-1.94%·-0.04%·1.58%
11.7%3.52%4.9%
203038
-5.95%·-0.74%·3.22%
15.3%9.16%5.7%
203553
-12.8%·-3.32%·3.52%
27.2%16.32%10.6%
What will the percent change in people employed as [occupation] in the US be relative to 2025?Construction Workers203033
-6.22%·3.49%·12.41%
13.1%18.63%4.0%
203543
-15.6%·-1.14%·11.85%
20.3%27.45%8.2%
Registered Nurses202742
0.02%·3.12%·5.6%
9.4%5.58%3.8%
203040
0.7%·8.31%·17.19%
10.9%16.48%4.4%
203549
0.97%·13.27%·30.93%
18.7%29.96%6.4%
Physicians203037
-2.44%·3.58%·9.06%
8.0%11.5%3.6%
203543
-2.78%·5.98%·15.83%
12.6%18.61%6.0%
General Managers203038
-12.84%·-3.2%·5.8%
14.0%18.63%4.7%
203548
-17.7%·-4.99%·8.74%
20.1%26.44%7.7%
K-12 Teachers203032
-6.24%·-1.02%·6.03%
8.9%12.27%4.8%
203543
-13.15%·-4.83%·2.59%
12.0%15.74%5.8%
Law Enforcement203035
-4.65%·0.21%·6.02%
7.7%10.67%3.4%
203546
-6.62%·2.05%·11.53%
12.8%18.15%5.7%
Janitors and Cleaners203034
-7.7%·-1.97%·3.5%
8.3%11.2%3.6%
203545
-23.99%·-6.81%·3.54%
22.3%27.53%10.2%
Restaurant Servers203037
-10.16%·-1.99%·6.39%
12.2%16.56%5.2%
203546
-18.61%·-6.16%·8.2%
20.5%26.81%8.3%
Laborers and Movers203037
-11.13%·-3.06%·5.19%
12.2%16.32%5.6%
203544
-25.05%·-9.19%·4.37%
23.9%29.42%9.7%
Engineers203034
-7.5%·1.16%·9.56%
12.2%17.06%4.9%
203542
-11.29%·1.9%·16.3%
19.5%27.59%8.3%
Designers202732
-5.85%·-1.71%·2.02%
13.9%7.87%5.6%
203033
-14.96%·-4.38%·6.38%
16.2%21.34%4.7%
203545
-23.16%·-7.23%·7.53%
24.2%30.69%8.4%
Services Sales Representatives202730
-4.31%·-0.73%·2.96%
12.7%7.27%4.1%
203031
-14.06%·-3.85%·6.66%
15.6%20.72%5.8%
203539
-24.37%·-10.16%·2.26%
21.8%26.63%8.0%
Financial Specialists202730
-4.21%·-0.6%·2.57%
11.9%6.78%3.8%
203033
-15.72%·-3.71%·5.09%
15.9%20.81%5.3%
203541
-31.59%·-12.94%·3.71%
30.0%35.3%11.1%
Lawyers and Law Clerks203036
-13.24%·-4.43%·3.96%
13.1%17.21%4.6%
203548
-27.24%·-10.25%·2.05%
24.4%29.29%10.3%
Software Developers202738
-5.42%·-1.14%·2.65%
14.2%8.07%5.4%
203041
-20.4%·-6.59%·6.49%
21.0%26.89%6.9%
203556
-31.11%·-10.97%·6.22%
31.2%37.33%13.3%
Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being
What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US [occupation] be relative to 2025 in the following years?US Employees (overall)203026
-2.12%·1.72%·5.77%
19.7%7.89%5.5%
203533
-2.88%·3.26%·9.79%
31.7%12.67%11.5%
Software Developers203026
-1.47%·4.59%·13.49%
24.9%14.95%7.7%
203533
-0.36%·13.08%·28.29%
35.8%28.64%12.2%
Financial Specialists203026
-1.08%·4.02%·11.29%
20.6%12.37%5.6%
203534
-1.61%·10.46%·23.77%
31.7%25.38%12.4%
Service Sales Representatives203026
-2.58%·2.13%·7.72%
17.2%10.3%5.6%
203532
-5.11%·3.87%·15.12%
25.3%20.23%7.5%
Designers203025
-3.91%·2.61%·9.04%
21.6%12.95%6.6%
203531
-6.96%·4.28%·16.27%
29.0%23.23%11.1%
Registered Nurses203026
1.2%·7.03%·13.77%
20.9%12.57%5.2%
203532
4.91%·13.17%·23.56%
23.3%18.65%9.8%
What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years?—203035
36.44·38.13·39.97
14.1%3.536.6%
203541
32.52·36.52·38.81
18.0%6.2910.4%
What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the [X]th-percentile US family in the following years?20th-percentile203023
1.04·1.24·1.49
18.1%0.457.6%
203528
1.02·1.28·1.56
21.6%0.548.4%
50th-percentile203023
2.12·2.38·2.66
17.7%0.537.5%
203529
2.12·2.49·2.88
25.5%0.7610.3%
80th-percentile203023
4.42·5·5.63
20.2%1.218.1%
203530
4.55·5.33·6.17
27.1%1.6311.9%
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?—203041
42.38%·52.92%·62.58%
20.2%20.21%7.7%
203551
51.69%·65.8%·76.92%
25.2%25.23%9.8%
Impact on the Next Generation of Workers
What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202739
6.29%·7.88%·9.87%
17.9%3.57%7.4%
203038
8.28%·10.31%·12.39%
20.5%4.11%9.2%
203548
9.15%·11.82%·14.84%
28.4%5.69%10.8%
What will the underemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202740
40.96%·44.25%·47.86%
27.6%6.89%11.2%
203038
44.39%·47.93%·50.99%
26.4%6.6%10.6%
203555
47.21%·54.77%·59.99%
32.0%12.78%12.8%
What will the percent change be in the US [field] Bachelor's degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?Overall2029-3026
-10.95%·-0.97%·7.24%
13.4%18.19%5.6%
2034-3533
-20.84%·-6.88%·7.72%
22.2%28.56%8.3%
STEM2029-3029
-7.79%·1.96%·14.15%
15.4%21.94%5.2%
2034-3545
-15.6%·-2.26%·11.68%
20.2%27.29%7.5%
Humanities2029-3029
-20.34%·-9.5%·2%
17.8%22.34%6.9%
2034-3536
-28.12%·-12.27%·6.52%
28.4%34.64%10.2%
What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?—2026-2726
-0.19%·2.83%·5.95%
13.4%6.14%4.4%
2029-3026
-3.32%·7.88%·20.2%
15.7%23.52%5.1%
2034-3533
-6.31%·8.65%·24.99%
20.8%31.3%8.8%
Changing Economy
What will the percent change in the US labor productivity be in the following years relative to 2025?—203029
9.44%·15.33%·24.55%
25.2%15.11%6.3%
203536
20.16%·29.28%·41.02%
34.8%20.86%8.2%
How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5000 employees in the following years?—203043
37.48·48.39·57.79
20.3%20.37.3%
203552
43.55·61.17·78.28
34.7%34.7210.1%
What will the US long-term unemployment rate be in the following years?—203033
1.47%·2.61%·4.21%
26.9%2.74%9.2%
203543
2.62%·4.17%·6.89%
28.1%4.27%10.2%
What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?—203035
54.04%·57.82%·60.38%
21.1%6.34%8.1%
203545
50.68%·54.92%·58.89%
27.4%8.21%10.1%
Comparison to Existing Research
How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022?—202726
6.88%·7.78%·10.17%
21.9%3.29%10.0%
203024
10.8%·13.56%·16.13%
35.5%5.33%9.2%
State-Level View
What will the percent change in the Washington state employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202728
-1.3%·0.47%·2.28%
11.9%3.58%4.2%
What will the percent change in the Washington [sector] be in the following years relative to 2025?Technology Sector202729
-3.81%·-0.62%·2.56%
15.9%6.37%6.0%
Aerospace Sector202730
0.07%·3.34%·7.13%
23.5%7.05%9.6%
Healthcare Sector202731
0.31%·2.44%·4.32%
13.4%4.01%4.6%
Methodology
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth?—203029
-6.12%·-1.44%·2.28%
14.0%8.39%6.3%
203536
-12.7%·-3.05%·2.3%
25.0%15%9.7%
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?—203033
-5.33%·-0.53%·3.33%
14.4%8.65%5.4%
203540
-6.5%·-0.81%·4.3%
18.0%10.8%5.8%