Metaculus Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: Forecast Statistics Dashboard

Data presented here lags the Metaculus platform and reflects data from Aug 24, 2026, 9:36 AM

Raw JSON
Uncertainty: 50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecasts from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%highly certain15%site median25%50% highly uncertain ▸Law Enforcement (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Physicians (2035)Nurses (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Engineers (2035)Construction (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Janitors (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Laborers (2035)Designers (2035)Lawyers (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Disagreement: Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%no spread5.5%site median20%40%observed site maxNurses (2035)Law Enforcement (2035)K-12 Teachers (2035)Gen. Managers (2035)Physicians (2035)Construction (2035)Restaurant Servers (2035)Engineers (2035)Sales Reps (2035)Laborers (2035)Designers (2035)Overall Employment (2035)Financial Specs. (2035)Janitors (2035)Lawyers (2035)Software Devs (2035)
Forecasters
Active human forecasters on the question
0
27
60+
50th Percentile Range
Range of aggregated forecast from 25th to 75th percentile, as percent of full question range
0%
15%
50%+
Earth Mover's Distance
How far an average forecaster's distribution sits from the aggregate
0%
5.5%
40%
QuestionSubquestionYearForecastersForecast Distribution
P5 · P25 · P50 · P75 · P95
Percentiles
P25 · median · P75
50th Percentile Range↕
% of range · raw below
Earth Mover's Distance↕
forecaster spread
Topline Employment
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202746
-1.29%·0.48%·2.07%
11.2%3.35%4.3%
203042
-6.04%·-1.16%·2.91%
14.9%8.95%5.5%
203548
-12.29%·-3.99%·2.77%
25.1%15.06%11.2%
What will the percent change in people employed as [occupation] in the US be relative to 2025?Construction Workers203031
-5.18%·3.91%·13.38%
12.9%18.56%4.3%
203537
-13.54%·0.5%·14.82%
20.5%28.36%7.2%
Registered Nurses202735
0.97%·3.68%·6.11%
8.6%5.13%3.5%
203035
1.59%·8.26%·15.4%
9.2%13.81%3.7%
203540
0.93%·12.69%·26.03%
16.0%25.1%6.0%
Physicians203036
-5.39%·2.19%·8.76%
10.1%14.15%4.7%
203537
-3.37%·7.24%·19.74%
15.5%23.11%7.1%
General Managers203035
-10.64%·-1.76%·8.2%
13.8%18.84%5.1%
203541
-18.28%·-3.9%·11.26%
22.3%29.54%7.1%
K-12 Teachers203029
-6.61%·-1.54%·4.14%
7.9%10.75%4.4%
203536
-13.19%·-4.73%·4.38%
13.3%17.58%6.2%
Law Enforcement203038
-5.22%·0.22%·6.2%
8.2%11.42%3.4%
203540
-6.4%·2.14%·12.15%
13.0%18.55%6.0%
Janitors and Cleaners203034
-8.72%·-1.29%·5.29%
10.3%14.01%5.1%
203536
-24.7%·-6.23%·6.81%
25.2%31.51%11.4%
Restaurant Servers203035
-8.52%·1.01%·9.43%
12.9%17.95%6.1%
203538
-13.13%·0.21%·14.85%
20.1%27.99%8.4%
Laborers and Movers203030
-9.96%·-0.75%·8.42%
13.4%18.38%4.9%
203534
-27.94%·-10.4%·7.75%
29.0%35.69%9.9%
Engineers203032
-5.84%·2.17%·9.42%
10.8%15.26%4.6%
203536
-12.29%·2.73%·16.17%
20.3%28.47%8.5%
Designers202735
-7.12%·-2%·2.1%
16.4%9.22%7.3%
203033
-15.96%·-3.38%·9.34%
19.0%25.31%7.4%
203540
-27.52%·-7%·12.13%
31.5%39.65%10.2%
Services Sales Representatives202729
-5.3%·-0.63%·3.64%
15.7%8.94%4.2%
203029
-15.94%·-4.57%·6.76%
17.2%22.7%5.1%
203533
-26.25%·-11.61%·6.6%
26.6%32.84%8.5%
Financial Specialists202731
-4.27%·-0.56%·2.83%
12.4%7.1%4.2%
203033
-17.37%·-5.26%·5.2%
17.4%22.58%5.6%
203536
-33.18%·-14.18%·7.23%
34.1%40.41%11.3%
Lawyers and Law Clerks203036
-17.2%·-3.45%·6.9%
18.4%24.1%6.5%
203541
-32.91%·-11.18%·7.27%
33.9%40.18%12.3%
Software Developers202740
-5.03%·-1%·3.05%
14.2%8.08%5.4%
203041
-21.22%·-7.36%·5.35%
21.0%26.58%6.7%
203550
-34.41%·-13.86%·8.11%
36.0%42.51%12.9%
Hours, Pay, and Financial Well-Being
What will the percent change of the hourly median wage of US [occupation] be relative to 2025 in the following years?US Employees (overall)203025
-3.21%·1.57%·6.13%
23.4%9.34%5.4%
203528
-4.01%·4.65%·12.89%
42.3%16.9%13.6%
Software Developers203023
-2.9%·5.17%·14.31%
28.7%17.2%8.7%
203527
0.03%·15.25%·30.14%
37.6%30.11%14.2%
Financial Specialists203026
-1.28%·5.07%·13.08%
23.9%14.36%7.7%
203530
-1.51%·11.59%·26.14%
34.6%27.66%12.8%
Service Sales Representatives203024
-4.51%·0.64%·7.09%
19.3%11.6%5.2%
203528
-5.98%·4.82%·16.05%
27.5%22.03%8.8%
Designers203023
-5.34%·1.06%·8.22%
22.6%13.56%8.0%
203527
-7.62%·6.59%·20.43%
35.1%28.05%12.8%
Registered Nurses203023
0.64%·6.67%·14.1%
22.4%13.45%5.7%
203527
3.68%·13.65%·24.36%
25.8%20.68%10.3%
What will be the average weekly hours worked in the United States in the following years?—203031
35.97·37.79·39.27
13.2%3.37.4%
203535
30.96·36.12·38.71
22.2%7.7510.4%
What will the well-being ratio (resources to poverty threshold) be for the [X]th-percentile US family in the following years?20th-percentile203020
1·1.19·1.48
19.0%0.479.2%
203523
0.97·1.25·1.64
26.8%0.679.1%
50th-percentile203020
2.03·2.32·2.6
19.0%0.578.5%
203523
2.07·2.49·2.99
30.7%0.9213.2%
80th-percentile203020
4.25·4.88·5.67
23.8%1.438.8%
203525
4.36·5.25·6.24
31.3%1.8814.6%
What will the percent of US workers that use AI daily be in the following years?—203035
40.72%·51.47%·62.6%
21.9%21.89%7.8%
203537
53.61%·68.48%·82.01%
28.4%28.4%10.0%
Impact on the Next Generation of Workers
What will the unemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202737
5.99%·7.31%·9.55%
17.8%3.56%8.7%
203033
7.27%·9.98%·13.65%
31.9%6.38%10.5%
203539
8.88%·12.78%·16.67%
38.9%7.78%10.7%
What will the underemployment rate among new graduates be in the following years?—202740
42.39%·45.15%·48.15%
23.1%5.76%9.6%
203038
43.6%·47.48%·50.86%
29.1%7.27%13.4%
203547
46.51%·53.62%·59.7%
33.0%13.2%13.5%
What will the percent change be in the US [field] Bachelor's degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?Overall2029-3023
-11.83%·-1.55%·6.01%
13.3%17.84%6.6%
2034-3528
-20.18%·-5.34%·9%
22.5%29.18%11.5%
STEM2029-3027
-10.34%·-1.25%·6.17%
12.2%16.51%5.6%
2034-3541
-15.93%·-3.42%·9.91%
19.3%25.85%8.7%
Humanities2029-3024
-19.22%·-8.47%·2.49%
17.2%21.71%7.5%
2034-3529
-31.94%·-14.66%·6.04%
32.0%37.99%11.4%
What will the percent change be in the US community college/trade school degrees awarded in the following years relative to 2024-25?—2026-2724
-0.48%·2.65%·6.05%
14.2%6.52%4.9%
2029-3023
-3.77%·6.45%·18.75%
15.2%22.52%5.9%
2034-3528
-5.82%·8.91%·28.31%
22.3%34.13%9.1%
Changing Economy
What will the percent change in the US labor productivity be in the following years relative to 2025?—203026
9.9%·15.66%·29.82%
33.2%19.92%10.7%
203530
19.72%·27.92%·40.21%
34.2%20.49%8.9%
How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5000 employees in the following years?—203038
40.39·49.9·59.9
19.5%19.58.3%
203541
48.42·65.94·81.61
33.2%33.211.7%
What will the US long-term unemployment rate be in the following years?—203032
1.57%·2.71%·4.43%
27.0%2.87%9.8%
203536
2.55%·4.04%·6.81%
28.4%4.26%11.1%
What will the labor share of national income (%) be in the US in the following years?—203031
56.1%·58.61%·60.82%
15.7%4.72%6.7%
203535
52.01%·56.1%·59.88%
26.2%7.87%10.7%
Comparison to Existing Research
How much will the occupational mix have changed in the following years, relative to November 2022?—202723
6.85%·7.67%·9.26%
16.1%2.41%8.4%
203021
10.56%·12.88%·15.87%
35.4%5.31%9.3%
State-Level View
What will the percent change in the Washington state employment levels be in the following years relative to 2025?—202726
-2.09%·0.13%·2.03%
13.7%4.12%5.4%
What will the percent change in the Washington [sector] be in the following years relative to 2025?Technology Sector202726
-3.26%·-0.08%·4.02%
18.2%7.28%6.0%
Aerospace Sector202729
-1%·1.89%·5.11%
20.3%6.1%7.8%
Healthcare Sector202726
-0.16%·1.97%·4.02%
13.9%4.18%5.0%
Methodology
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on positive real GDP growth?—203028
-6.76%·-1.1%·3.38%
16.9%10.14%6.6%
203531
-13.61%·-2.91%·3.47%
28.5%17.08%9.9%
What will the percent change in the US employment levels be in these years vs 2025, conditional on AI benchmark stagnation?—203030
-4.97%·0.25%·4.52%
15.8%9.48%5.8%
203533
-6.67%·-0.42%·5.39%
20.1%12.06%6.5%